Six panoramic courts, an academy and a 365-day operation inside a four-key resort in Benahavís — presented as six exhibits, each one a claim and the data that carries it. Every figure below reconciles with the 26-page business plan, the financial model and the quarterly cash flow that accompany this document. It is prepared for an investor who built a European filtration leader to pharmaceutical tolerances — so every exhibit leads with the data, and the adjectives stay home.
Field survey, July 2026, every club within 20 minutes: the leader runs ≈12 hours per court per day at €36 with two-week waiting lists for classes; the newest large facility proves that hardware without programming stays empty; and no club between Marbella and Estepona offers new panoramic courts inside a resort. We price at €28 — the corridor's midpoint — and model 40% occupancy: half of what the leader achieves today.
| CLUB | COURTS | €/HOUR | CLASS €/H | READING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC (leader) | 10 | 36 | 140 | ~80% occupancy · waiting lists |
| Cap Racket | 8 | 24–28 | 70–110 | new courts, weak operation |
| Forest Hills (Estepona) | 6 | 28 | 70 | mid-market reference |
| Real Padel Club | 6 | 28 | 60 | outdoor, none covered |
| COLINA DEL PARAÍSO | 6 | 28 | — | only new glass inside a resort |
Year 1 opens at 28% occupancy and loses €6,352 — deliberately absorbed by a €62,000 working-capital buffer. From year 2 the academy, leagues and camps compound: by year 3 the club produces €522,521 of revenue and €136,132 of EBITDA (26.1%), on 13,140 court-hours sold. Watch the gap open:
EBITDA across occupancy (rows) and blended price (columns). The gold cell is our base case — deliberately in the middle of the map, not the corner. Break-even sits at 28% occupancy (≈3.7 h/court/day); with the written contingency plan active, the operating floor drops to 19.4%.
At 28% occupancy and €24 pricing — every lever failing at once — the club still generates €12,004 of EBITDA. The year-1 planned loss is −€6,352 against the €62,000 buffer. The full worst-case P&L, with the contingency plan line by line, is section 12.3 of the business plan.
Works are a fixed-price envelope of €470,000; professional direction is a single 15% package; contingency is 10% on everything. Equity is never wired up-front — it follows the project's own gates:
Bank debt at 3.75% over 12 years is one structure, not a dependency: unlevered, the project returns 11.2%. Debt service of €38,805 is covered 2.9 times by year-3 EBITDA. Equity is returned in 8.5 years; the 20-year hold multiplies cash 4.7×.
A visit to Colina del Paraíso, the render at full size, the interactive model open on the table — move the occupancy and price sliders yourself and watch every exhibit recalculate live. Half an hour. No commitment.
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